Data report · Nov 1, 2026

Heat pump vs furnace costs by U.S. region

Same HVAC wage file, different job assumptions: heat pump mid estimates run well above furnace replacements in every Census region.

Chart: Fairange mid estimates · BLS OEWS May 2025 · Share freely with attribution

We don’t have utility rates or design-day loads in this dataset — so we’re not crowning a “winner.” What we can show is how our planning estimates for a furnace replacement vs a heat pump install compare once you apply the same local HVAC wage file.

Heat pumps carry higher equipment/hours assumptions in our job table, so they land higher everywhere. By Census region, average metro mid estimates look like this:

Region	Furnace mid	Heat pump mid	Gap	Metros
Northeast	$3,875	$8,711	$4,836	49
Midwest	$3,839	$8,639	$4,800	94
South	$3,669	$8,294	$4,625	155
West	$3,876	$8,713	$4,837	87

The South averages a bit lower on both jobs in our file — reflecting OEWS HVAC wages there — but the heat-pump premium stays large because of the job assumptions, not because the South “needs” different markup math. Federal credits and utility rebates (IRS §25C, ENERGY STAR, DSIRE) can change the homeowner’s net cost; we link those on the methodology and job notes rather than baking unstable credit dollars into the chart.

Compare side by side: furnace vs heat pump.

Estimates, not bids. Fairange planning estimates from public BLS wages plus published hours/materials assumptions. Not contractor bids. Hours, materials baselines, and contractor markup (2.0× / 2.25× / 2.5×) are ours — published on the methodology page. Wages are BLS OEWS May 2025. Always get local written bids.

Also: ZIP calculator · city guides · how we estimate · press kit

By The Fairange team · [email protected]